| 英文摘要 |
This study aimed to find out the impact of climatic change on mariculture: hard clam, oyster, and small abalone. A brief review was conducted on the effects of temperature and salinity on these three organisms. Optimal empirical models of multiple regression were constructed by using stepwise selection procedure (max R2) to regress 3 humanity factors and 8 climatic factors (data during 1976-2005), and 8 coastal sea surface factors (data during 1996-2005) against each productivity (production/ha). Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to compare the relative influences of factors. The empirical model for hard clam showed that productivity was negatively affected by price of previous year and standard deviation of monthly air temperature and positively affected by seed price. If humanity factors were excluded, no model resulted between productivity and climate factors. Oyster productivity was positively affected by maximal monthly air temperature, standard deviation of monthly air temperature, and maximal monthly rainfall. Small abalone productivity was negatively affected by both maximal monthly rainfall and standard deviation of monthly air temperature. When only the data during year 1996-2005 was used and coastal sea surface factors were considered in modeling, a model of near perfect fitting was obtained, in which the independent variables were seed price, minimal monthly rainfall, maximal monthly air temperature, maximal monthly coastal sea surface temperature, and minimal monthly coastal sea surface color. These results suggested that although aquaculture is the culture of aquatic animal under artificial facility, disregarding human involvement is extensive or intensive, climatic influence is inevitable. The effects of macro-scale climatic change, namely, El Nino – La Nina on productivity was not found in this study. |