| 英文摘要 |
According to the 6 December 2008 draft NAMA modalities text, issued by the Chairman of the negotiation on Non-Agriculture Market Access, the final bound rate of duty is defined by the Swiss formula with coefficient 8 for developed members and 20, 22 and 25 for developing countries. Under the assumptions of the Doha round negotiation will be implemented in 2011 and a final tariff reduction schedule might be ended in 2017, this study tried to evaluate the impact of new round of WTO on the fishery sector in Taiwan. Various scenarios were specified to show the impact under various demands and supply situation in the short run and in the long run.
The study finds that the import quantify of fishery sector in 2017 will be increased by 116.55%, while the total production of fisheries sector will be decreased by 4.71% than the predicted value of the corresponding baseline, respectively. More specifically, the production of ell, milkfish, marlin, shark, kuruma shrimp, giant shrimp, white shrimp, and oyster will be influenced significantly by the Doha Development Round of trade liberalization. A structure adjustment plan would be needed to reduce the impact in advance.
In 2007, the exports of Taiwanese seafood products to ASEAN plus Japan, Thailand and Korea account for 67.76% and 69.94% in export quantity and value, where Japan, Thailand and Korea are the three major seafood export desinations for Taiwan, which account for almost 87% of the above export value. It is expected that if the ASEAN plus Three will establish as a free trade zone then it could have a great impact on Taiwan’s exports of seafood products. The simulation result shows that if the export prices of tuna, ell, saury and mackerel in Taiwan are assumed to be reduced according to the reduction of the import tariff among ASEAN plus Three, the export quantities and total production of the fishery sector will be reduced by 10.43% and 15.99%, respectively.
In addition, if the WTO final tariff reduction schedule will be ended in 2017 and the export price of tuna, ell, saury and mackerel are reduced according to the reduction of the import tariff among ASEAN plus Three, the total production of fisheries sector in 2017 will decrease by 17.78% and 26.20% than what’s predicted by the 2017 baseline in quantity and value, respectively. Among three major fisheries activities, the aquiculture activities will bear the biggest loss in output by 19.24%.
This study recommends to reduce the excess capacity of offshore/costal and aquaculture fisheries based on their market condition and to try to adjust their fishing activities according to the conservation of the limited marine resource and water resource to meet the challenge of globalization. By considering the impact of the fishery sector, it is necessary to request most of the fishery products to be classified as sensitive items under NAMA, which will enjoy longer adjustment period and lower tariff reduction. Since almost 43.37% of the labor force in the industry and fishery sectors are above 55 years old and depend on the employment opportunity in the fishery sector in remote fishing village, a retirement program for fishermen will be needed to ensure the smooth transition of unemployment situation in the fishery sector. |