| 英文摘要 |
Based on the study of previous years, we try to evaluate the possible change trend of albacore, yellowfin, bigeye tunas and swordfish by utilizing the methodology established and multi-scale data of remote sensing as well as the future climate scenario simulation provided by IPCC. We aim to identify hotspots with climate impact and discuss future problems faced by industry and management. The result indicated that under A1B scenario hook rate of most area of the two Oceans will decrease over 50% in spite of the variation among species. In the Pacific Ocean, the hot spot of hook rate decline may occurs between 0°N and 20°S but those for North Pacific are dispersed. In the Atlantic Ocean, relatively high decreased areas are located in waters of low latitude and west of Africa. Due to empirical model for some species has low variance explained and high uncertainty of environmental simulation factors, we should be very conservative about the present evolution before we have carried out the latest evolution with improved model and more up-to-date IPCC simulation data. |